The 50-page report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, released Tuesday, contends that with its advances in military capabilities and an increasingly internationally focused defense strategy, China is rapidly entering “a period of strategic opportunity … [toward] building comprehensive national power,” said senior DIA intelligence analyst Dan Taylor.
The goal of China’s relentless military buildup is to “impose its will in the region and beyond,” Mr. Taylor told reporters at the Pentagon. Beijing “has demonstrated a willingness to use the [military] as an instrument of national power in the execution of … their historic mission in the new century.”
While Chinese advances in hypersonic weaponry, cyberwarfare and sea power are increasingly challenging longtime U.S. military supremacy, U.S. analysts say, China’s chief security priority may be much closer to home: reclaiming control of Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. The U.S. security umbrella has long restrained the mainland in its pressure campaign against Taipei.
“Our concern is we’ll reach a point where internally, within [China‘s] decision-making, they will decide that using military force for a regional conflict is something that is more imminent,” a senior U.S. defense intelligence official said.
Asked whether a military offensive to reclaim Taiwan into the Chinese mainland could be in the offing, the official replied, “Specifically, that would be the most concerning to me.”
China possesses medium- and intermediate-range missile technology that has achieved near parity with American-made systems. It would be those types of missiles that would likely be the first salvo in any Chinese effort to retake Taiwan, the intelligence official said.
“If they wanted to fire missiles at Taiwan, they could do it right now,” the official said, noting that “there’s been no indication they’re planning to do that, but there’s very little warning that could be provided for that kind of thing.”
For now, however, after that initial missile strike, it is highly unlikely that Chinese forces could mount the necessary ground invasion to overtake the island, the U.S. official said.
“There’s a lot of work that I think that they’re still doing to try to work on those [invasion] capabilities, and we don’t have a real strong grasp on when they will think that they are confident in that capability,” the official said.
“In the coming years, [China] is likely to grow even more technologically advanced and proficient with equipment comparable to that of other modern militaries,” Mr. Taylor said. Leveraging “advanced fighter aircraft, modern naval vessels, missile systems, and space and cyberspace assets,” Beijing will continue to press its interests in the Pacific and beyond.
While Chinese advances in areas such as space, cyberwarfare and next-generation aircraft have been well-documented over the years, it is Beijing’s rapid progress “across all different domains, simultaneously” that has raised alarm bells across the Pentagon.
Last year, Beijing announced its latest intermediate-range missile in the Chinese arsenal, the Dong Feng-26, now had a nuclear capability. Once fully operational, the DF-26 “would give China its first nuclear precision-strike capability” against targets in the Asia-Pacific region, the DIA report states.
In the field of hypersonics, Beijing is “on the leading edge of technology” nearly surpassing the Pentagon’s latest efforts, with China on the cusp of fielding a non-nuclear weapon capable of hitting any target around the world in an hour.
“From the Chinese perspective, they would hope that it would cause a great threat to U.S. warships,” in the Pacific and elsewhere, the intelligence official said regarding China’s advances in missile and hypersonics technologies. “It’s very concerning to see all the different areas they’re making progress.”
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