Things To Come: Creation Of European Security Council

German Chancellor Supports Creation of European Security Council

In the speech Angela Merkel delivered on September 30 during her visit to Ottobeuren, Bavaria, the chancellor strongly supported the creation of a Security Council of the European Union on a rotational basis. The idea was first expressed during the German-French intergovernmental consultations that took place in June 2018. 

It presupposes a permanent presence in the body of the EU leaders, such as Germany and France, with others coming and going in turn. The new body will be an analog of the UN Security Council, with the permanent members making major decisions about the fate of the world.

Indeed, it’s hard for the 28 member states to take unanimous decisions on foreign policy. The 2009 Treaty of Lisbon established the “qualified majority” method - 55% of member countries, comprising at least 65% of the population when it comes to the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), joint defense policy, the European police, space, energy, migration, etc. When the Council is not acting on a proposal from the Commission or the multi-hatted high representative for foreign affairs and security policy and vice-president (HR/VP), the necessary majority of member states increases to 72%. To block legislation, at least four members - the minimum number representing more than 35% of the population of the participating countries, plus one country - have to vote against a proposal. The right of veto remains. In theory, Hungary or Italy could impede the anti-Russia sanctions.

In general terms, the idea of a European Security Council was approved by France and Germany in June. 

The creation of the body will be included into the agenda of the EU summit on October 18. It could be finalized at the special summit devoted to the bloc’s reform, which will take place in Sibiu, Romania, on May 9, 2019. 

The EU national leaders will also vote there on President Juncker’s proposal to move from unanimity to qualified majority voting in certain areas of the EU's CFSP to make the bloc a stronger “global actor”. The plan includes three specific areas: human rights, sanctions, and security and defense missions.

At the same time, some nations, such as Poland and Hungary, are not willing to give away their right to implement independent foreign policy. A common policy is hardly possible as the attitudes toward Russia and the US differ. With the UK gone, Poland will become the leader of pro-US bloc inside the EU. Several countries want the anti-Russian sanctions lifted and the migration policy drastically changed. Eurosceptics are predicted to improve their position in the European Parliament and Germany may be led by another chancellor by that time. The process of European integration may be frozen or even pushed back instead of making strides ahead as the German chancellor wants it to.

This is a make it or break it moment for the chancellor. She needs badly fresh ideas and new initiatives to keep her position. Otherwise, her tenure as well as a lot of other things, such as anti-Russia sanctions, may become things of the past.