The U.S. has reimposed crippling, unilateral sanctions on the Iranian government, which has led to widespread unrest in many major cities as the people are angry at unkept promises by the regime.
The sanctions will hit Iran where it really hurts: its financial sector. The Iranian government's access to dollars will be severely limited, and the purchase of Iran's debt will be curtailed. The Iranians will also be unable to buy precious metals on the world market. Taken together, they represent a crippling blow to Iranian trade, imports, and exports. Any nation that defies the sanctions will be hit with reprisals by the U.S.
The Iranian people, already suffering from high unemployment and high inflation even without the sanctions, appear to have had enough.
The protests, which have shaken the capital Tehran, the central city of Isfahan, the southern city of Shiraz and other scattered cities and towns across the country, resemble a leaderless wave of unrest that rocked more than 100 cities in Iran in December and January. They are the largest since then, although they haven't reached the same size and geographical spread.
While food-price rises are driving the unrest in some areas, a brackish water supply has stoked discontent in the southwest in recent months. Labor unrest has also spiraled across Iran. Women earlier this year protested against restrictions on their dress and behavior in public, filming themselves removing their mandatory headscarves in public and dancing – a major taboo in the Islamic Republic.
Plenty of protesters have also called for the downfall of Iran's regime. In a video shared on social media on Friday, soccer fans leaving Tehran's Azadi Stadium after a match are seen chanting "Death to the dictator!" – a rejection of Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mr. Rouhani's remarks on Monday were similar to what he said when protests flared in December, promising to take steps to right an economy where both inflation and unemployment are projected as in double digits this year.
Even the regime's usual bluster against the U.S. and the West has been more subdued. In fact, their confident words about support from the people is belied by the unrest across the country. They are running scared, as Rouhani has offered to talk with the U.S. without preconditions.
The regime leadership has no doubt seen the grim outlook for the economy:
Instead of recovering, however, the economic outlook has worsened. Analysts at BMI Research expect the economy to contract by 4.3% next year, mostly due to U.S. pressure on Asian allies to scale back purchases of the crude oil that accounts for a big chunk of its economic activity. A second round of U.S. sanctions in November targets Iran's oil and shipping industries.
It should be noted that the president's announced goal of the sanctions is regime change. This is a startling turnaround from the Obama years, when that administration sought to strengthen the regime's hold on power by lifting sanctions. Despite the U.S. State Department naming Iran as the number-one supporter of terrorism in the world, you have to believe that Hillary Clinton would have continued the appeasement of Iran, leading to more oppression of the Iranian people and more trouble for Iran's neighbors in the region.
The regime is in trouble, and the mullahs know it. Will they be able to keep a lid on the unrest this time? Or is some kind of reckoning coming? The people of Iran will ultimately decide that.
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