In an extraordinary last-minute reversal, Chancellor Angela Merkel, facing the imminent collapse of her coalition government, agreed late on July 2 to reinstate border controls with Austria.
Interior Minister Horst Seehofer had threatened to resign from Merkel's cabinet unless she agreed to a plan by July 3 to reduce so-called irregular secondary movements. The plan to which Merkel agreed entails holding refugees at detention camps to be established along Germany's southern border, the main gateway for refugees to the country, and turning back those who have already claimed asylum in other EU countries.
Seehofer's resignation would have called into question the continued viability of a 70-year-alliance between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and his Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble warned that the two parties were "standing at the edge of the abyss."
A CDU/CSU divorce would have deprived Merkel of her majority in parliament and possibly triggered new elections in which the anti-immigration party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), would have been the biggest winner, according to recent polls.
By acquiescing to Seehofer's demand, Merkel has secured the near-term continuity of her government. The dispute, however, has exposed Merkel's loss of authority over her own parliamentary group and, according to some observers, has ushered in the beginning of the end of the Merkel era.
Merkel said that she was vehemently opposed reinstating German border controls out of concerns that other European governments would do the same, thereby triggering a domino-effect that would effectively end the free movement of people within the so-called Schengen Area. Currently, the Area comprises 26 European states that have abolished passport controls at their mutual borders.
Seehofer responded to Merkel's concerns by giving her time to find a European solution. An EU Summit in Brussels on June 28-29, described as the "mother of all summits" because of its impact on Merkel's political future, attempted to bridge the differences among EU member states over migration policy. After a marathon negotiating session, EU member states agreed to a series of vague promises that there should be "a shared effort" on migration but "only on a voluntary basis."
Reaction to Merkel's last-minute deal with Seehofer, which must still be approved by her other coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), was mixed, with some questioning the legality of the agreement. Some commentators said the deal was unlikely to be effective, while others said that Merkel has been weakened by the dispute. Most German commentators agree that Merkel's open-border migration policies may be her political undoing.
The vice president of the GdP police union, Jörg Radek, noted that the CDU/CSU agreement is limited to the German border with Austria. In 2017, he said, there were 16,312 unauthorized entries on the border with Austria, but 33,823 unauthorized entries along Germany's other borders, including those with Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland. "The borders with Belgium and the Netherlands are as open as a barn door," he said. Radek accused the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia of resisting effective controls along its border.
Matthew Qvortrup, the author of the recent book, "Angela Merkel: Europe's Most Influential Leader," concluded:
"After almost 13 years in power, time is rapidly running out for the German chancellor.
"Nowhere was her diminishing influence more evident than at last week's EU leaders' summit. Where once Merkel commanded the floor and had other leaders practically queuing up to kiss her hand, this time it was she who came with the begging bowl, and all but implored her colleagues to find a solution to the immigration problem that could save her political skin. Gone was the confident chancellor, usually front and center in photographs in her usual pose: eyes straight ahead, hands clasped in front of her. Instead, she looked away....
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