In a recent series of interviews to promote his new book, Anatomy of Terror, former FBI special agent and current counterterrorism expert Ali Soufan insists that the Islamic State remains potent and dangerous. Speaking last week to the British newspaper The Guardian, Soufan warned that, even though the Islamic State was unable to hang on to its self-described caliphate in the Middle East, the group has ample opportunities to regroup. In the days of al-Qaeda, “we only had one vacuum, in Afghanistan”, from where Osama bin Laden’s organization operated from and spread its message, said Soufan. “Now we have so many vacuums —Syria, Yemen, Libya, northern Nigeria, Tunisia, the Philippines— and it’s expanding. That’s very dangerous”, he warned.
But most intelligence agencies agree that al-Baghdadi —and his core lieutenants— remain very much alive and well. Three weeks ago, The Washington Post cited anonymously a “senior United States counterterrorism official” who confirmed that, by all indications, al-Baghdadi was alive and was coordinating the group’s activities in its last strongholds in eastern Syria. This is supported by communications intercepts, detainee interrogations and statements by informants, said The Post. It is important to note that Al-Baghdadi continues to have alongside him some of the militant group’s most hardened commanders, most of whom were trained in intelligence and military tactics during the reign of Saddam Hussein. Under their guidance, retreating Islamic State forces are leaving behind cell-based formations of underground fighters in areas that are liberated by the fragile US-led coalition.
More importantly, the leadership of the Islamic State is now actively laying out the group’s long-term strategy. Its central parameter appears to be based on a carefully crafted ideological framework that will allow the group to survive the loss its territorial stronghold it the Middle East. Experts tell The Post that al-Baghdadi appears to be mediating between various Sunni militant factions in an effort to solve longstanding doctrinal disputes between them. The overall goal is to unite them under the Islamic State’s ideological umbrella, but not necessarily under a single strong leader. In fact, having learned from the experience of al-Qaeda, whose brand suffered irreparably after Osama bin Laden’s demise, the Islamic State “has chosen to de-emphasize” the importance of al-Baghdadi or any other individual group leader, says The Post. That is why al-Baghdadi has remained largely silent for years, and is unlikely to re-emerge, regardless of what happens to the organization in the near future.
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