The dynamics of the standoff between the US and North Korea have shifted dramatically in the past week.
First, the North started with an unexpectedly sharp provocation - launching a missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido - before following that up with its sixth nuclear test. Also, judging by the size the earthquake detected in the country’s mountainous North on Sunday morning, North Korea may have been telling the truth when it said it conducted what it described as its first hydrogen bomb test.
And while the North bragged about the weapon’s “great destructive power” in a TV broadcast, what caught analysts’ attention was a mention of a different tactic: detonating an H-bomb at high altitude to create an electromagnetic pulse that could knock out parts of the US electrical grid.
“North Korea’s threats against the U.S. now include a tactic long discussed by some experts: an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, triggered by a nuclear weapon that would aim to shut down the U.S. electricity grid.
North Korea’s state news agency made a rare reference to the tactic in a Sunday morning release in which the country said it was able to load a hydrogen bomb onto a long-range missile. The bomb, North Korea said, ‘is a multifunctional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP attack.’”
Unlike a conventional nuke, an EMP blast - think Oceans' 11 - is not directly lethal, and serves mostly to knock out key infrastructure (useful when robbing a casino).
However, it would probably lead to an unknown number of indirect deaths as hospitals and essential infrastructure lose power.
“The idea of an EMP attack is to detonate a nuclear weapon tens or hundreds of miles above the earth with the aim of knocking out power in much of the U.S. Unlike the U.S. atomic bombs dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, such a weapon wouldn’t directly destroy buildings or kill people. Instead, electromagnetic waves from the nuclear explosion would generate pulses to overwhelm the electric grid and electronic devices in the same way a lightning surge can destroy equipment.”
In the worst possible scenario, regional power grids could be offline for months, potentially costing many deaths as people would eventually start running out of necessities like food and medicine. Lawmakers and the US military have been aware of the EMP threat for many years, according to WSJ. IN a 2008 report commissioned by Congress, the authors warned that an EMP attack would lead to “widespread and long-lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that underpin the fabric of US society.”
In a report published last month, the Hill noted that the North could choose to carry out an EMP attack on Japan or South Korea as a more politically acceptable act of aggression. Such an attack could help the North accomplish its three most-important political goals, the Hill said.
“North Korea has nuclear-armed missiles and satellites potentially capable of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. EMP is considered by many the most politically acceptable use of a nuclear weapon, because the high-altitude detonation (above 30 kilometers) produces no blast, thermal, or radioactive fallout effects harmful to people.
EMP itself is harmless to people, destroying only electronics. But by destroying electric grids and other life-sustaining critical infrastructures, the indirect effects of EMP can kill far more people in the long-run than nuclear blasting a city. In this scenario, North Korea makes an EMP attack on Japan and South Korea to achieve its three most important foreign policy goals: reunification with South Korea, revenge upon Japan for World War II, and recognition of North Korea as a world power.”
Finally, here is a repost from July 2014, in which hedge fund legend Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management, said that "there is one risk that stands way above the rest in terms of the scope of potential damage adjusted for the likelihood of occurrence" - an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Three years he may be proven correct.
South Korea strengthened the deployment of a controversial US-made missile defense system and launched a huge show of military might on Monday in response to North Korea's hydrogen bomb test.
Seoul said the North appeared to be preparing to launch more missiles after Sunday's test rocked the region. South Korea conducted a series of live-fire drills and said the US was preparing to bolster its military presence in the region.
Russia warned that it would consider ramping up its military assets in response, and China warned that the deployment of the missile defense system, THAAD, risked escalating the already tense situation.The deepening crisis has caused frayed relations on both sides. North Korea's continued belligerence was a blow to China, which has failed to keep its ally in check despite persistent warnings. China said Monday it had made a "stern representation" to North Korea over the test.
Meanwhile Donald Trump, the US president, opened up a rift with South Korea, saying it risked "appeasement" of Pyongyang.
Latest developments:
-- Briefing parliament, South Korean military officials said there were ongoing signs that Pyongyang was preparing to test another Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
-- Seoul said it would activate four Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launch pads and said the US was considering the deployment of an aircraft carrier and more bombers.
-- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Moscow could increase its missile presence in the Pacific in response to the deployment of the US missile defense system.
-- South Korea conducted a series of military drills, including a simulation of an attack on the North's nuclear-testing site. More live-fire tests would follow, it said.
-- The United Nations Security Council was due to hold an emergency session in New York.. Leaders of Japan and South Korea held a 20-minute phone call Monday to discuss tougher sanctions.
-- US defense secretary, James Mattis, said any threat from North Korea to the US would be met with a "massive military response."
Seoul responded to North Korea's nuclear test with a show of military might that was intended to demonstrate its willingness to "wipe out" the regime of Kim Jong Un, South Korea's Defense Ministry said.
South Korea's army and air force carried out a joint drill that involved multiple F-15K fighter jets and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. They hit targets off the country's east coast to simulate a strike on North Korea's nuclear test site, according to a statement from the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.
South Korea plans to carry out another missile drill to show its "strong will and ability to respond."
On Sunday Pyongyang claimed it has the ability to place a miniaturized nuclear weapon on an ICBM. If confirmed, it would be a significant advance for its weapons program, achieved far sooner than experts had predicted.
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