As Putin arrives at the Minsk Summit, his Deputy Foreign Minister makes the Russian position clear to Washington:
- *U.S. ARMS SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE WILL HAVE DRAMATIC OUTCOME: IFX
- *RUSSIA WILL NOT IGNORE U.S. ARMS SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE: IFX
Hardly what Merkel or Hollande wants to hear?
As Interfax reports,
- U.S. LETHAL WEAPONS SUPPLIES TO EAST UKRAINE WILL HAVE DRAMATIC CONSEQUENCES, RUSSIA WON'T BE ABLE TO STAY ASIDE - RYABKOV
- CHIZHOV: U.S. IS ARTIFICIALLY SUPPORTING DEBATE IN EUROPE ON SUPPLY OF WEAPONS TO UKRAINE
- CHIZHOV: EUROPE UNDERSTANDS THAT SUPPLY OF WEAPONS TO UKRAINE WILL INCREASE RISK OF DIRECT INVOLVEMENT OF RUSSIA
And finally Poroshenko adds,
- POROSHENKO: SITUATION WILL GET OUT OF CONTROL IF AGREEMENT ON DE-ESCALATION OF SITUATION IN DONBAS IS NOT REACHED IN MINSK
The future of Ukrainian statehood and the risk of escalation beyond Ukraine’s borders hang in the balance as French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders meet in Minsk on Wednesday (11 February).
The office of chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday the EU offer is based on last year’s “Minsk protocol”: withdrawal of heavy weapons; withdrawal of Russian troops; creating a new buffer zone; sealing the Russia-Ukraine border; introducing monitors from the OSCE, a multilateral body; and granting Russia-occupied areas limited autonomy under the Ukrainian constitution.
Russia has indicated it wants the new ceasefire line to endorse its recent territorial gains, to post UN peacekeepers to the conflict zone, and for rebel-held areas to gain quasi-independence in a federal Ukraine.
If there is no deal at all, the stakes could get even higher.
The US and some EU states - including Poland and the UK - have said they reserve the right to deliver modern weapons to the Ukraine military.
But the Kremlin has warned that if they go ahead it would be seen as an attack on Russia itself.
“The Americans are trying to draw the Russian Federation into an interstate military conflict, to achieve regime change through the events in Ukraine and to ultimately dismember our country”, Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s security chief, who is on an EU blacklist, said on Tuesday.
Dmitry Kiselev, a Putin propagandist who is also on the EU list, has in recent days and weeks gone further - invoking the risk of a nuclear confrontation.
German leader, Angela Merkel is saying all the right things as she professes to be attempting to shore up western unity with regard to the crisis in Ukraine. However, Merkel is caught between a rock and a hard place. Germany receives a substantial portion of its gas from Russia and the majority of that gas flows through Ukraine. Currently, there is no nation on the face of the planet, outside of Ukraine, that needs this crisis brought to a conclusion than Germany. And this crisis needs to be resolved, sooner rather than later.
Putin has made overtures to Germany in the past which would encourage Germany to forsake its Western alliances (i.e. the EU and NATO) and strike a beneficial deal with regard to obtaining its gas supplies from Russia at bargain basement prices.
An examination of the following “tale of the tape” shows that the loss of Germany to Russia would significantly change the military balance of power. China has already been lost to Russia and now it appears that Turkey will soon follow suit.
Please note how highly dependent France and Italy are on Russian gas. France is a major player in NATO and Italy plays home to important NATO basis. If Germany acquiesces and partners with Russia, I would expect France and Italy to follow suit. How long could the UK remain a close ally of the U.S. when the rest of Europe shifts its allegiances?
The U.S. should be quaking in its boots. Putin has already proven to be a master of signing favorable energy deals in order to block the U.S. sphere of influence. Last November, Russia signed the world’s largest energy deal worth nearly $400 billion dollars with China. This move signals a shift away from China partnering with America so long as China controlled and owned U.S. debt. This energy deal also signaled a dramatic foreign policy shift in China’s move away from the United States and aligning with Russia.
Less than one month after Russia signed its $400 billion dollar energy deal with China... the fifth summit of the Turkey-Russia High Level Cooperation Council, culminated with the signing of agreements and an amazing announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin.Putin stated that the South Stream pipeline project...would run through Turkey. This makes Turkey extremely dependent upon Russia. Turkey is the home of several NATO military facilities including nuclear weapons.
If Russia is to successfully turn Germany and Turkey away from NATO, America would see the breakup of NATO.
In order to measure the impact of these Russian energy deals, begin to subtract out Turkey, Germany and France’s contribution to NATO. Then consider, in a nightmarish scenario, if Turkey, Germany and France don’t just withdraw from NATO, but militarily align with Russia, the United States would not have a prayer of winning World War III.
Does anyone believe that Putin does not have the capacity and the motivation to break up NATO?
“The Ukrainian crisis was not caused by the Russian Federation,” said Putin in remarks posted on the Kremlin website. “It emerged in response to the attempts of the US and its western allies – who consider themselves ‘winners’ of the cold war – to impose their will everywhere.”
Putin’s remarks make it quite clear that the outcome of the Cold War is personal to him. And when emotions get involved, logic can quickly disappear. That would be the logic that a leader needs to avoid war.
The only question remains is will Putin wait to attack the United States when the U.S. is isolated and out of options? It is not likely that Putin would give away the strategic advantage of a first strike. If Putin waits until the U.S. is out of options, he would negate the element of surprise and risk an American first strike. Logic would dictate that Putin will strike when Germany leaves NATO.
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