Twists And Turns In The Middle East

The Middle East has more twists and turns than we could ever expect and today's news represents no exception to that rule. Who knows what is really happening behind the scenes, but here it is - open to interpretation and discussion:

Israel May Delay Attack In Return for MOP Bunker Buster Bombs

The United States may supply Israel with advanced Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs that can penetrate through up to 60 feet (almost 20 meters) of reinforced concrete, reports MaarivTuesday.

This is part of a deal being worked out between the countries, which also includes the supply of refueling jets.

This equipment will make the job of demolishing Iran's nuclear weapon production array more feasible for Israel, should it decide to do so.

In exchange for the weapons, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will agree to hold off on an independent attack until after the U.S. elections.

President Barack Obama fears that a war could negatively affect his chances of being reelected. Israel, on the other hand, fears that Obama's re-election could create diplomatic and military conditions that allow Iran to acquire the weapon it needs for killing millions of Israelis.

Obama may soon publicly describe the "red lines" which, if crossed by Iran, would trigger a U.S. military response. Maariv speculates this could happen when he gives a speech at the UN on Yom Kippur eve, or even in his speech at the Democratic National Convention.

These steps may mollify Netanyahu, and could be the reason for his apparently less forceful statements on Iran in the past two days.

The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) GBU-57A/B is a U.S. Air Force precision-guided, 13,000-kg (30,000-pound) bomb, and the most destructive bunker-buster yet. According to a Wired.com piece last week, the USAF has announced it has finally completed building that bomb: "It’s an absolutely ginormous bomb designed to convince rogue regimes that there is no redoubt for the manufacture of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons buried deep enough to escape the U.S. Air Force."

PM: "Clear Red Lines" Issued To Iran Might Reduce The Need For Military Action

Greater international resolve to stop Iran’s nuclear program and clear expression of a “red line” that Iran cannot cross without incurring a military response will reduce the likelihood of Israel being forced to act militarily, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated Monday.

His comments prompted speculation that the US and Israel are working behind the scenes on an understanding, whereby President Barack Obama would issue some kind of public deadline to Iran, in exchange for an Israeli commitment not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before November’s presidential elections.

Speaking to an American delegation from the Heroes to Heroes Foundation, Netanyahu said that the biggest threat Israel faces is “Iran’s plans to develop nuclear weapons capability,” but Tehran “doesn’t see a clear red line from the international community” to cease its drive to the bomb.

On Monday, however, the New York Times reported that the White House was considering outlining clearer red lines, beyond which it would authorize military action against Iran, in order to calm Israeli fears.

“Maybe that’s the deal” being arranged between Washington and Jerusalem, said Udi Segal, a diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 2 news — referring to a possible public deadline issued by Obama to Iran, in return for a guarantee from Netanyahu not to attack.

The US talk of a military option to date “is meaningless,” Channel 2 News military correspondent Roni Daniel added, because Iran did not take the threat seriously. Any “red line” set by the US would have to truly represent a “determination” to strike — and would have to be understood as such by Tehran — for it to be effective, he said.

Paper Details Obama Admin's Alleged Secret Note Sent To Iran: If Israel Attacks, We Won't Get Involved

The Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot published a startling report Monday detailing a message it says was conveyed by the Obama administration – via two European countries – to Iranian officials. The request: if Israel decides to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, the U.S. will not support it and the Islamic Republic should refrain from retaliating on U.S. military installations in the Persian Gulf.

The message that the U.S. conveyed to Iran via the most sensitive secret channels is unequivocal: if Israel attacks, we won’t stand behind her and we won’t be drawn into war.

In recent days, senior American administration officials turned to their Iranian counterparts via two countries in Europe which act as a back-channel during times of crisis. They made clear to the Iranians that the U.S. does not intend to be sucked into a campaign if Israel decides to strike unilaterally and without advance coordination [with the U.S.], and they said that they expect from Iran that it will not attack strategic American targets in the Persian Gulf. That means, among other things, Army bases, Navy ships and aircraft carriers sailing in the region.

If true, the report begs the question: If he truly wants to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability, why is President Obama investing in secret contacts with Iran about an Israeli strike aimed at destroying – or at least setting back – the nuclear program? Wouldn’t his efforts be better focused on warning Ahmadinejad of the dire consequences of his apparently accelerated efforts at one day possessing a military nuclear capability?

U.S. Denies Secret Deal With Iran

The White House on Monday denied an Israeli newspaper report that accused Washington of secretly negotiating with Tehran to keep the United States out of a future Israel-Iran war.

The Jewish state also played down the front-page report in its biggest-selling daily,Yedioth Ahronoth, which followed unusually public disagreement between the allies about how to tackle Iran’s controversial nuclear program.

The Obama administration says it is strongly committed to Israel’s security and to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and has vowed far-ranging reprisals if attacked.

Obama administration has repeatedly made clear in public that it thinks diplomacy and tough new sanctions have not yet run their course, even as Israeli officials say the window for effective military action is rapidly closing.

U.S. To Iran: "In Case Of Israeli Strike, Don't Fire On Our Bases"

The United States has no intention of joining in a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran and expects the Islamic Republic to refrain from attacking US targets in the case of such an attack, senior Washington officials told their Iranian counterparts, according to a report in Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday.

In recent days, senior administration officials reportedly sent messages to Iran, through diplomats from two European states, addressing the possibility that Israel would launch a unilateral strike and establishing that the US expects Iran to not draw it into a conflict by firing on American army bases and aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf.

Monday’s report came amid widespread debate over the level of coordination between Israel and the US on halting Iran’s nuclear program, which — despite assurances by US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro on Sunday that the relationship is as good as ever — appeared to be strained.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Monday that the Obama Administration is installing new curbs against Iran as a way to calm Israel and keep Jerusalem from launching an attack. It asserted that the president was considering a declaration of American “red lines.”

Peres: Israel Will Be Able To Deal With Any Threat

“We’ve known many heavy threats and we’ve always won,” Peres said during the Israel Defense Prize ceremony which was held at the presidential residence.

“I suggest that our enemies not underestimate our capabilities, both the visible ones as well as the hidden ones,” he added. “Israel can repel any threat, near or far.”

“I say to our enemies: Abandon the path of war and terrorism,” continued Peres. “The Middle East can only be freed from the poverty and hardships with peaceful means. We do not threaten anyone and we are not afraid of threats being made against us.”

Iranian People Fear A War With Israel

Egypt Confronts Israel With 6,000 Sinai Islamists As Approved Militia

To keep the truce with the Islamist terrorist networks in Sinai in place, while avoiding a large-scale military operation to suppress them, Egypt is now releasing dozens of jailed Salafist gunmen in batches every few days, so feeding the Islamists a steady supply of reinforcements. Cairo is also in negotiation with Bedouin tribal elders to grant a body of 6,000 Al-Qaeda-linked Salafi gunmen the status of an approved, independent militia.

Armed with up-to-date Egyptian weapons, this militia is to be charged with responsibility for maintaining security in the peninsula.

This may be a neat way out for Egypt and let the Morsi government off the hook of grappling with the violent Islamist networks infesting Sinai. But it leaves Israel squarely face to face with a whole new terrorist outfit which has the freedom to choose between operating in the service of Al Qaeda or Cairo – or playing both sides

Egypt no doubt intended this buffer strip to serve additionally for keeping terrorists at a distance from its border with Israel. But IDF observers in that area see very little Egyptian military activity for keeping it sterile and closed to hostile movements.
Once the Salafis are organized in a militia and formally recognized as such by Cairo, it will be that much harder to keep them from breaching the buffer strip abutting the Israeli border.

Also see:

Indications That Europe Has Become An Economic Black Hole: Will Suck The Life Out Of The Global Economy

Summer vacation is over and things are about to get very interesting in Europe. Most Americans don't realize this, but much of Europe shuts down for the entire month of August.

And as I wrote about last week, if there is going to be a financial panic, it typically happens in the fall.

But most Americans aren't too concerned about what is happening in Europe.

In fact, most Americans don't believe that a European financial collapse would be much of a problem for us.

If Europe experiences a financial collapse, the entire globe will feel the pain.

And considering how weak the U.S. economy already is, it would not take much to push us over the edge.

What is going on in Europe right now is a very, very big deal and people need to pay attention.

The following are 18 indications that Europe has become an economic black hole which is going to suck the life out of the global economy....

The truth is that Europe is teetering on the edge.

One wrong move and it is going to be 1929 all over again.

As I have maintained all along, the next wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching, and this time the epicenter for the crisis is going to be in Europe.

The last wave of the economic collapse hurt us.

This next wave is going to absolutely devastate us.

Watch what is happening in Europe very carefully. What Greece, Spain, Italy and France are experiencing right now is going to hit us soon enough.

Underground Volcano In Italy Could Threaten The Lives Of Many

Drilling is underway at the site of a huge underground volcano near the Italian city of Naples, a few kilometres from Vesuvius.

Scientists are looking for a chamber of molten rock believed to be located 3.5 km underground in the Campi Flegrei region.

This type of volcanic land is known to be the origin of the strongest type of eruptions, capable of causing a level of destruction similar to that of a meteor striking earth.

Italy: Under The Volcano

The Federal Reserve Has Already Started QE3, Says Investor Jim Rogers

Mr Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, believes that America's central bank is secretly printing money to avoid "getting egg on their face again" after previous attempts to kickstart the faltering economy with $2 trillion of QE failed.

"I do not know if they [the Fed] will announce it," he told India'sEconomic Times. "I know they are going to print more money. They already are. If you look at their balance sheets, you will see that something is happening, assets are building on their balance sheets and they are not coming from the tooth fairy.

"They are a little bit embarrassed because they announced QE1 and QE2, and it did not work. So they may try to discuss it. They may just continue to do it without getting egg on their face again, but they are going to print money, they are all going to print money. It is the wrong thing to do, but that is all they know how to do."

He told the Daily Telegraph: "They probably have learned how to do things off balance sheet. I have nothing to confirm this but everyone else has learned how, so they probably have too.

Global Crisis Moves East As China Suffers Rapid Downturn

“It just keeps getting worse,” said Alistair Thornton and Xianfang Ren from IHS Global Insight. “The government has underestimated the pace of the slowdown and is behind the curve.

Evidence of a hard landing over the summer is becoming clearer. Rail volumes fell 8.2pc in July from a year before. The Japanese group Komatsu said its exports of hydraulic excavators to China – a proxy gauge for Chinese construction – fell 48pc in August from a year before.

The twin effect of China’s downturn and Europe’s double-dip recession has turned into a full-blown shock for much of Asia. Hong Kong and Singapore both contracted in the second quarter and are probably in technical recession.

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Patrners said we are starting to see Phase III of the global crisis as “the eye of the storm moves East”, with China and emerging markets succumbing at last to the effects of debt leverage.