Trump claims ‘new Iran regime president’ wants ceasefire, says he’ll consider if Hormuz opened

Trump claims ‘new Iran regime president’ wants ceasefire, says he’ll consider if Hormuz opened

 Times of Israel is liveblogging Wednesday

Trump claims ‘new Iran regime president’ wants ceasefire, says he’ll consider if Hormuz opened

US President Donald Trump claims Iran’s “new regime president,” who is “much less radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!”

Trump writes on Truth Social that the US will consider the purported ceasefire offer “when Hormuz Strait is open, free and clear.”

“Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”

It is not immediately clear who Trump is referring to as the “new regime president.”

Earlier this week, Trump confirmed that the US was engaging with Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, though he has not been appointed president and is not seen to be any less hardline than previous Iranian leaders.

On Wednesday, Iran’s actual president, Masoud Pezeshkian — who has been in the role since 2024 — did say Iran is prepared to accept a ceasefire, but only if it receives security guarantees.

The post also indicates Trump has again shifted his stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, he threatened to bomb Iran’s energy sites if Tehran didn’t allow the safe passage of all ships through the strait.

Yesterday, though, he indicated several times that the US was prepared to end the war without the issue being resolved and that other countries would have to step up and address the issue because it impacts them more than the US.

IRGC claims to hit oil tanker in Gulf that belongs to Israel

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirm that they had struck an oil tanker in the Gulf, claiming it belonged to Israel.

“An oil tanker belonging to the illegitimate and child-killing Zionist regime with the trade name ‘Aqua 1’ in the central region of the Persian Gulf was precisely targeted in the valiant missile battle of the IRGC naval forces, and is burning,” the Guards say in a statement carried by state television.

Qatar had earlier said the tanker was hit in its territorial waters.

Iran has previously claimed to hit tankers belonging to Israel when the connections to the Jewish state were indirect at best.

IRGC says Hormuz ‘will not be opened to enemies’

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards insist that the strategic strait of Hormuz will remain closed to the country’s “enemies,” as US President Donald Trump said he would only consider a ceasefire if it was reopened.

“The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is also firmly and dominantly under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval forces,” the Guards says in a statement carried on state TV, adding that it “will not be opened to the enemies of this nation.”

Macron says France not ‘taking part’ in Mideast war after Trump criticism

President Emmanuel Macron says France has not been consulted and wasn’t taking part in the war against Iran, after US leader Donald Trump criticized the country’s overflight ban on planes carrying military supplies for the conflict.

“It is absolutely true that France, which has not been consulted and is not part of this military offensive launched by the United States and Israel, is not taking part in it,” Macron says in an interview with Japanese broadcaster NHK during his visit to Tokyo, adding that had been France’s stance since “day one” of the war.

International Energy Agency warns Middle East oil disruptions set to hit Europe in April

Oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will rise in April and begin to impact Europe’s economy as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely curbs supplies, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol says.

More than 12 million barrels of oil have been lost since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran due to Tehran’s attacks on energy assets in the region and restrictions on shipping through the Strait, he adds.

“The loss of oil in April will be twice the oil loss in March, on top of the loss of LNG… It will come through inflation and will cut economic growth in many countries,” Birol tells a podcast with Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund.

Losses are expected to widen in April, since a number of oil and LNG cargoes arriving in March were contracted before the war and continued towards their destinations, he added.

The biggest problem is the lack of jet fuel and diesel, which has already affected Asian countries but was also due to hit Europe, Birol said.

NATO not designed to carry out operations in Hormuz, says French minister

Macron says France not ‘taking part’ in Mideast war after Trump criticism

Iran warns Bulgaria not to let US use airports for military action

Iranian threat against Apple, Google, and Intel

Iranian threat against Apple, Google, and Intel

Israel National News

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is threatening major high-tech companies amid suspicion that they are involved in assassinations within the country.

The Iranians warned that 18 companies-including Apple, Google, Intel, Microsoft, and Meta-will be targeted starting at 8 pm tomorrow evening (Wednesday), in response to the assassinations.

In the statement, the Revolutionary Guards called on employees of these companies to evacuate their workplaces “to save their lives," and issued a similar warning to residents living near the offices of tech giants in the Middle East.

“Residents in the vicinity of these companies, in all countries of the region, should also leave their locations within a radius of one kilometer and move to a safe place," the Iranians warned. “Companies that actively participate in terrorist plans will be targets of retaliation. Starting from 20:00 on Wednesday (Tehran time), their facilities will be subject to attack in response to any assassination within Iran."

The Day After?

The ‘Day After’ The War

Shay Khatiri, Middle East Forum

The Islamic Republic’s actions throughout the war indicate a fear of losing domestic control after the war ends. Replacements of slain officials and redeploying Popular Mobilization Forces confirm this.

Israeli strikes have eliminated a list of senior officials. Many of these offices remain vacant, but two senior replacements stand out.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr replaced Ali Larijani as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and Ahmad Vahidi replaced Mohammad Pakpoor as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Zolghadr and Vahidi, like their predecessors, are both Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals, but this obscures more than it reveals.

Larijani and Pakpoor both had extensive foreign policy experience. Larijani had been involved in Iran’s nuclear file and alliance management for decades, and Pakpoor had led Iran’s Iraq operations.

In contrast, Zolghadr and Vahidi cut their teeth in domestic suppression. Zolghadr led the crackdown of the 1999 student uprising in Tehran.

He later took charge of domestic security at the Interior Ministry under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad ousted him in 2007 for allegedly being too paranoid about losing domestic control under U.S. pressure.

Later, Chief Justice Sadegh Larijani appointed him to judicial branch positions. In Iran, the judicial branch both prosecutes and sentences and is at the forefront of domestic suppression.

Vahidi has a similar background. He was the minister of defense under Ahmadinejad, but he moved on to domestic security.

He was the minister of interior under Ebrahim Raisi and played a key role in managing the 2022–23 protests. He used his position to increase domestic surveillance.

Bringing in the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces also hints at domestic concerns. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not a monolith.

As a leaked memorandum from a November 2022 meeting among Revolutionary Guard commanders and the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei showed, local commanders sympathized with the people’s grievances and warned that their subordinates were themselves impoverished.

These commanders are not usually corrupt regime cronies and are closer to the people, but they oversee most of the force.

In contrast, commanders of strategically important units, such as the missile base, Quds Force, and Khatam al-Anbiya, are rich and ideological.

During the conversation, there was an obvious divide between the two factions, the former advocating for accommodation with the people and the latter preferring a crackdown.

ran’s security forces have been increasingly reluctant to kill their compatriots, prompting the regime to ask the Iraq-based, Iran-sponsored Popular Mobilization Forces.

Preemptively readying them suggests the regime is worried about another uprising after the war and that it cannot trust its own forces to get the job done.

Checkpoints are popping up in Tehran, further confirming fears of domestic uprisings, exacerbated by Israel’s degradation of the regime’s command, control, and communications apparatus.

There have been disappointments about a lack of uprisings in Iran, though some of these reports should be taken with a grain of salt. Iranians will not come to the streets while bombs fall.

President Donald Trump told Iranians to stay at home until further notice, citing the risks. Iran is under martial law.

A second uprising will require a call to protests by either exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, Trump, or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Protests against the regime will emerge if coalition forces change their mission from degrading Iran’s military capabilities to protecting civilians.

While many in the Western media still filter war coverage through a lens shaped by hatred of Trump, and many reinforce Iranian regime propaganda, the regime’s own actions suggest that Iranian decision-makers are less confident in the regime’s staying power than the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.

Rather than focusing on winning the war, they realize the real struggle will be surviving its aftermath.

China’s Quiet Gains During US-Israel War On Iran

China’s Quiet Gains During US-Israel War On Iran

Hamza Zaman via RealClearDefense,

The Iran conflict continues to protract despite President Trump’s assumption of a quick and easy victory.

The goals of regime change and the decimation of the Iranian ballistic missile program remain unfulfilled, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz further adds to the strategic qualms of the Western powers.

The GCC states are also facing significant damage to their services industry, transport infrastructure and energy sector.

While both sides suffer great losses in this protracted conflict, America’s biggest geopolitical rival – China – seems to be gaining palpable economic and strategic benefits from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Iranian strikes on GCC energy infrastructure, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian oil refineries and gas infrastructure, sent shockwaves through global energy supply chains. This resulted in supply chain disruptions, shortages, rationing and price hikes. These energy supplies are traded in U.S. dollars and constitute a discernible source of demand for the U.S. dollar. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz further amplifies supply chain disruption, forcing buyers to choose alternative sources, including Russia. Iran’s announcement of a safe passage for oil tankers in exchange for payment in Yuan is being hailed as a direct assault on the primacy of the U.S. dollar and the petrodollar system.

The outcome of these events is the diminution of the U.S. dollar’s hegemony and the rise of the Chinese Yuan. China continues to purchase discounted oil from Iran in Yuan, and the procurement of Russian oil will also be in non-USD denominations. The fall of the U.S. dollar will accentuate China’s rise as a major competitor of the U.S.. China is already vying for a common BRICS currency, and its efforts will intensify in the future, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. The war in the Middle East presents an opportunity for the Chinese Yuan to accentuate China’s geoeconomic rise.

China’s observation of Operation Epic Fury provides its military with an opportunity to gather ample data on American military tactics and strategies. It also provides China with insight into the capabilities and limitations of American weapon systems. The downing of American fighter jets, including F-15E Strike Eagles, KC-135 Stratotanker, F-35A and Q-9 Reapers, as well as the destruction of radars and limitations of American air defense systems in the Middle East, is an opportunity for the Chinese military to evaluate its military arsenal and reassess its own capabilities and limitations vis-à-vis American military prowess.

With the help of artificial intelligence and machine learning, the Chinese military would analyze these weapon systems and military strategies and create real-life war-like simulations for the Chinese military with precise data. The destruction and limitation of the American military assets will also persuade global vendors to pursue Chinese combat-tested alternatives from the May 2025 Pakistan-India War, thus augmenting Chinese defense exports.

Strengthening Rare Earth Leverage against American Military Industrial Complex

The involvement of the U.S. in another war in the Middle East has the American military industrial complex up and running. Given the intense bombardment, fast-paced depletion of its air defence interceptors and the destruction of radars, the U.S. is expected to swiftly replenish its arsenal. However, the U.S. reliance on China for rare earth minerals – essential for the American military industrial complex – indicates that the U.S. strategic autonomy is compromised. In response to the Trump administration’s tariff war and ban on advanced chips exports to China, China meticulously weaponized rare earth minerals, effectively defying the actions of the Trump administration. In the wake of the Iran conflict, the Trump administration’s dependence on China for its rare earth needs magnifies, actively putting China in an advantageous position.

The Chinese government can tactfully play its cards, forcing the U.S. to continue the exports of advanced chips to China as well as completely abolish the exorbitant tariffs on Chinese products.

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The Debt Spiral That Ends in Dollar Destruction: 6 Hard Truths America Can No Longer Ignore

The Debt Spiral That Ends in Dollar Destruction: 6 Hard Truths America Can No Longer Ignore

Nick Giambruno

“Whenever governments are granted power to purchase their own debt, they never fail to do so, eventually destroying the value of the currency.” – Ron Paul

Let’s take a step back and look at the big picture so we can assess the US government’s financial situation, where it’s likely headed, and what these trends could mean.

Observation #1: It’s Politically Impossible To Cut Spending

Among the biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

It’s unlikely any politician will cut entitlements. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing.

That’s because tens of millions of Baby Boomers—about 22% of the population—will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

The interest on the federal debt is already the second-largest federal expenditure. In a matter of months, it’s set to exceed Social Security and become the biggest expenditure.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, National Defense—another large expenditure—is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase. President Trump has proposed increasing it from $917 billion to $1.5 trillion. The ongoing war with Iran guarantees military spending has nowhere to go but up, way up. The Pentagon has requested an additional $200 billion for starters for the Iran war.

Different types of healthcare and welfare programs also make up a considerable part of the federal budget and are unlikely to be cut.

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare while reducing the national debt to lower the interest cost.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 128 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

Here’s the bottom line.

The government cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

Observation #2: Ever-Increasing Debt Is the Only Way To Finance Deficits

When faced with a choice, politicians always choose the most expedient option.

In this case, that means issuing more debt rather than making tough budget decisions or explicitly defaulting.

Consider the recurring debt ceiling farce in the US Congress, which has been raised over 100 times since 1944.

In any case, don’t count on increased tax revenue to offset these increases in federal expenditures.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 902 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $6.8 trillion.

The US federal government spent around $7 trillion in FY 2025, and will almost certainly spend a lot more in FY 2026 and beyond.

Even if the US government confiscated 100% of billionaire assets through a wealth tax, it wouldn’t cover even a single year of current federal spending.

And even after confiscating all billionaire wealth, the US government would still have to borrow more than $200 billion to cover FY 2025 spending.

Here’s the bottom line: increasing taxes, even to extreme levels, isn’t going to change the trajectory of this unstoppable trend—even slightly.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the deficits will not stop growing, nor will the debt needed to finance them.

The growth rate is not even going to slow down. It’s going to increase.

That means interest expense on the federal debt will continue exploding higher.

Observation #3: Over Half of US Treasury Debt Matures by 2028

This year, nearly $10 trillion of US Treasuries will mature.

And every bond that comes due has to be refinanced at today’s much higher rates—locking in substantially larger interest costs for years. What used to roll over quietly can now only be rolled over at roughly double the interest cost seen in 2022.

That’s what the chart below is really showing: the easy-money era is over. The “free money” party ended, and now the bill for the last round of stimulus has to be carried—and paid.

More than half of America’s debt will mature by 2028.

Every time US debt is refinanced at higher rates, it adds interest costs to the deficit—costs that have to be financed with even more debt issuance, compounding the problem.

It’s worth noting that about $6.6 trillion of the $9.6 trillion maturing this year—roughly 69%—are short-term T-bills.

That’s typical in a debt crisis. As demand for long-term bonds weakens, investors gravitate to short-term instruments like T-bills instead of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.

It’s the same pattern you see in emerging-market crises. The market shortens maturities as conditions deteriorate. Only a fool would want to lend a bankrupt government money for the long term.

Observation #4: An Ever-Growing Interest Expense Fuels the Debt Spiral

Annualized interest on the federal debt exceeds $1.2 trillion and is surging higher. That means more than 23% of federal tax revenue is going just to service interest on the existing debt.

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Iran’s hackers go to war

Iran’s hackers go to war

Jacob Judah

As missile sirens wailed over Israel earlier this month, thousands of Israelis received texts claiming to be from their military, encouraging them to download a fake shelter app, which could have stolen reams of personal data. 

Others received a mass text saying: “Netanyahu is dead. Death is approaching you and soon the gates of hell will open before you. Before the fire of Iranian missiles destroys you, leave Palestine.” 

The messages, cyber security experts say, are the most visible end of a vast war being waged in the far reaches of the internet between Iran, Israel and the US, and their online sympathisers.

They may use keyboards instead of rifles but Iran’s hackers, who have fought Israel in the digital shadows for years, are among the most battle-hardened soldiers Tehran can call on.

“The Iranians are throwing everything they have at this,” said Chris Krebs, who as a former director of the Cybersecurity and Information Security Agency (CISA) was one of the most senior civilian US cyber security officials. 

“It is all hands on deck,” Krebs said. “If their cyber operators are breathing, then they will be on their keyboards.”

Their aims vary wildly, from sowing fear to causing chaos, hoovering up intelligence and isolating missile targets. In the murky world of cyber warfare it is hard to tell who even has the upper hand.  

But winning in cyber space has become so critical to shaping perceptions and damaging enemy morale that Iran has invested heavily in efforts to pierce American and Israeli firewalls. 

Iran has three different levels of cyber operators, whose boundaries are often blurry, analysts and former officials said.

The most experienced are run directly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence. They maintain a dizzying array of front organisations, used to introduce plausible deniability for attacks and issue public threats.

Iran also hires semi-autonomous hacking proxies, cybercriminals and contractors. Finally, volunteer hacktivists have also regularly mobilised behind Tehran.

Its operatives are believed by various governments and cyber experts to have doxxed Israel-based employees of a large US defence contractor, hacked the emails of politicians in Albania — which hosts an Iranian opposition group — and infiltrated a Polish nuclear research centre. Much of its most sensitive espionage is likely to have gone unreported.

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