The Israeli public, media and government's patience with Hamas is wearing thinner with every border skirmish • Hamas may opt for war to prevent the residents of Gaza from turning against them • The next flare-up may be the breaking point for both sides.
The latest flare-up on the Israel-Gaza Strip border appears to have calmed down dramatically since Thursday night, but everyone knows it is far from over. Barring an extreme turn of events, the next round of rocket fire on Israel's south is only a matter of time, as is Israel's next military campaign in Gaza.
The truce brokered by Egypt on Thursday is not an official cease-fire. Hamas, via Cairo, announced it was halting its rocket fire into Israel, prompting the IDF to halt its strikes, which is in line with Israel's "calm will be met with calm" policy. And so, as long as border riots and arson terrorism incidents remain sporadic or absent, the tenuous truce appears likely to hold.
A deeper analysis of last week's spike in border tension demonstrates that both parties were again careful to play by the familiar rules: Hamas made sure to target only border vicinity communities in Israel – the Grad rocket fired deeper into Israel at Beersheba was the work of Islamic Jihad – and the IDF spared no effort to make sure its strikes on Gaza terror targets resulted in minimal casualties, so as not to give Hamas an excuse to escalate the situation.
Ostensibly, this indicates that neither party is interested in war, but there is no question that last week's events have brought Israel and Hamas significantly closer to one.
This is more evident on the Israeli side, where the public, media and government's patience is wearing exceedingly thin. It is getting harder and harder for Israeli defense and government officials to explain why the military must show restraint and refrain from making Hamas pay for disrupting the lives of so many Israelis living in border-adjacent communities.
Things are not as clear-cut in Gaza, but the simmering Palestinian rage, too, is very close to boiling over. The dire economic situation in Gaza and the absence of any diplomatic, political or economic horizon paint a bleak picture in which Gazans have nothing to lose. When they reach that point, Hamas will opt for war with Israel, mainly for fear Gazans will turn against it.
The volatile dynamics on the border, Hamas' prolonged kite terrorism campaign and what seems like the current futility of the cease-fire negotiations, are sure to bring about another massive flare-up sooner, rather than later. When that happens, Egypt and the U.N., which have so far been acting as restraining factors, are likely to find it difficult to prevent a rapid escalation.
Israel has no interest in fighting another war with Hamas but as things stand, it would find it difficult to expand its truce offer beyond the original gestures of opening the Kerem Shalom border crossing, extending the fishing zone off Gaza's shores and increasing the power supply to the coastal enclave.
Hamas, for its part, had demanded the construction of air- and seaports for Gaza via Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and would likely be unsatisfied with the "usual" offer. Moreover, with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas overtly trying to torpedo any attempt to cement a cease-fire, chances of reaching one are slim, making chances of an escalation very high.
As far as Israel is concerned, if it must launch another military campaign in Gaza it would prefer to do it now, during the summer holiday, before the High Holidays and when the Israelis living in Gaza-vicinity communities, especially the children, can be evacuated without disrupting the school year. This does not mean that Israel intends to launch a war tomorrow, but the next time Hamas attacks, Israel may choose to use the opportunity to take broader action in its favor.
Between Ceasefire And War: Gaza On A Knife's Edge
It is perhaps unique to this context that both sides of the current flare-up—the Israeli army and Hamas, the terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip—can simultaneously escalate their attacks on each other while negotiating a delicate ceasefire.
Such has been the case in recent days, leaving many on both sides wondering if the heavier blows exchanged are the final ones before a truce, or the opening salvos of a new war.
On Thursday, Israeli fighter jets flattened a five-story building west of Gaza City, injuring 18 people according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. The army alleges that the building was used as a headquarters for Hamas’ internal security service. This, the army declared, was in response to a Hamas rocket attack on the southern Israeli city of Beersheba earlier in the day.
It was the first time since the 5-day conflict in 2014 that Beersheba, a major urban center about 25 miles from the enclave, was targeted by projectiles fired from Gaza.
Ronen Manelis, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, said later Thursday that the bombing of the high-rise building in broad daylight was intended to send “a message to Hamas that as long as their choice of terror continues, the IDF’s [Israeli Defense Forces] responses will increase and become more powerful.”
Israeli authorities said that over 200 projectiles were launched at Israeli communities between Wednesday night and Thursday. Most of them hit open areas while the Iron Dome defense system destroyed about 25 rockets. Some projectiles, however, managed to penetrate defense systems and exploded in civilian areas, injuring several Israelis.
The rocket and mortar fire from Gaza then prompted waves of Israeli airstrikes and artillery bombardments against what the IDF described as military targets (about 150 in total) in the Strip. The Gaza Health Ministry reported that the Israeli strikes killed three and wounded six other Palestinians.
Maurice Hirsch, a former IDF prosecutor, explained to The Media Line that it is not in Israel’s interests to start a war, but to defend itself.
“[The army] should deliver a clear message that firing missiles constantly into Israel will not be tolerated,” he said. “The general idea of getting rid of a terrorist organization that is running Gaza and embittering the lives of the population is positive. Another question is if this option is a plausible goal or not.”
He explained that much of what started the latest round of violence is unconnected to Israel. It includes the Palestinian Authority’s attempt to subjugate Hamas by cutting or limiting electricity in Gaza, as well as withholding salaries to Gaza-based PA employees.
"Therefore, any ceasefire that could be reached would end up being broken by Hamas leaders anytime they feel that PA President Abbas is not playing to their tune. What long-term goal would this achieve for Israel? In two-months, we could find our civilians again under a barrage of 150-200 missiles in a night. I think this is something that the Israeli government shouldn’t be willing to tolerate.
Between Ceasefire And War: Gaza On A Knife's Edge
It is perhaps unique to this context that both sides of the current flare-up—the Israeli army and Hamas, the terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip—can simultaneously escalate their attacks on each other while negotiating a delicate ceasefire.
Such has been the case in recent days, leaving many on both sides wondering if the heavier blows exchanged are the final ones before a truce, or the opening salvos of a new war.
On Thursday, Israeli fighter jets flattened a five-story building west of Gaza City, injuring 18 people according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. The army alleges that the building was used as a headquarters for Hamas’ internal security service. This, the army declared, was in response to a Hamas rocket attack on the southern Israeli city of Beersheba earlier in the day.
It was the first time since the 5-day conflict in 2014 that Beersheba, a major urban center about 25 miles from the enclave, was targeted by projectiles fired from Gaza.
Ronen Manelis, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, said later Thursday that the bombing of the high-rise building in broad daylight was intended to send “a message to Hamas that as long as their choice of terror continues, the IDF’s [Israeli Defense Forces] responses will increase and become more powerful.”
Israeli authorities said that over 200 projectiles were launched at Israeli communities between Wednesday night and Thursday. Most of them hit open areas while the Iron Dome defense system destroyed about 25 rockets. Some projectiles, however, managed to penetrate defense systems and exploded in civilian areas, injuring several Israelis.
The rocket and mortar fire from Gaza then prompted waves of Israeli airstrikes and artillery bombardments against what the IDF described as military targets (about 150 in total) in the Strip. The Gaza Health Ministry reported that the Israeli strikes killed three and wounded six other Palestinians.
Maurice Hirsch, a former IDF prosecutor, explained to The Media Line that it is not in Israel’s interests to start a war, but to defend itself.
“[The army] should deliver a clear message that firing missiles constantly into Israel will not be tolerated,” he said. “The general idea of getting rid of a terrorist organization that is running Gaza and embittering the lives of the population is positive. Another question is if this option is a plausible goal or not.”
He explained that much of what started the latest round of violence is unconnected to Israel. It includes the Palestinian Authority’s attempt to subjugate Hamas by cutting or limiting electricity in Gaza, as well as withholding salaries to Gaza-based PA employees.
"Therefore, any ceasefire that could be reached would end up being broken by Hamas leaders anytime they feel that PA President Abbas is not playing to their tune. What long-term goal would this achieve for Israel? In two-months, we could find our civilians again under a barrage of 150-200 missiles in a night. I think this is something that the Israeli government shouldn’t be willing to tolerate.
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