A 2012 military analysis of North Korea’s attack Seoul would be less damaging than more simplistic analysis.
Despite the thousands of artillery pieces, only 700 heavier guns and rocket launchers, plus the newer 300-millimeter MRLs, have the range to strike Seoul. Seoul has extensive air raid shelters for civilians that will quickly reduce the exposed population density. The North will struggle to keep these heavy artillery units supplied with shells, particularly with its aging supply system. Finally, U.S. and ROK forces will quickly begin hunting down units participating in the bombardment, causing their numbers to drop almost immediately.
North Korea occasionally threatens to “turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire”. The South Korean, U.S. and other international media often relay this statement, amplifying its effect. But can North Korea really do this? Does it matter if they can? The short answer is they can’t; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime.
With less than 50 days until the German election, Germany’s intelligence services have warned of a large migrant wave set to hit the country, comparable to the one that overwhelmed Europe two years ago. “The new large refugee wave is already under way,” wrote Austria’s leading newspaper Kronen Zeitung today, citing German Security services.
The story was broken by the German newspaper Die Welt in its Sunday edition:
Security services believe that the number of asylum seekers in Germany would rise in the coming months. According to the latest analysis of the Shared Analysis and Strategy Center (GASIM) acquired by Die Welt, “Several indicators point to a rise in illegal immigration into Germany in the second half of the year.” The basis for this assumption are the [recorded] migrants crossing in the Mediterranean, reaching of the peak capacities in Italy, the Refugee Policy of the Scandinavian countries, and the observations of the [German] border police in the month of July.
The Balkan route, the preferred land passage taken by the majority of illegal migrants on their way to more prosperous European welfare states, was formally closed in March 2016 after a popular outcry that greatly impacted the BREXIT outcome, and gave rise of several grassroots patriotic movements and political parties across the EU which oppose uncontrolled mass migration from Arab and Muslim countries. Since then, the European ruling class has been busy convincing the anxious electorates that it has managed to close the migrant routes and reduce the influx. Last year, President of the European council, Donald Tusk, proclaimed, “The irregular flows of migrants along western Balkans route have come to an end.”
Kronen Zeitung slammed this notion of the “closed” Balkan land route peddled by the EU and many European politicians:
The report of the Shared Analysis and Strategy Center (GASIM) says that the “closed” Balkan route isn’t that leak-proof as some Austrian politicians would have us believe: Germany’s Interior Ministry estimates that the majority of illegal immigrants coming to the country are still coming though Hungary via Austria. The Migrant Crisis in the Mediterranean between Libya and Italy is of little significance to the situation in Germany.
Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, running for her fourth term, has repeatedly refused to limit the number of illegal migrants entering her country. “As far as an upper limit is concerned, my position is clear: I will not accept it,” Merkel told German reporters last month.
With Merkel gaining 15-point lead over the nearest Social Democratic rival, she may well be able to form the next government with the support of her junior coalition partner, the Liberal Democratic FDP.
European Council President Donald Tusk believes Poland’s future in the European Union could be in jeopardy over the country’s many disputes with the EU.
“It smells like an introduction to an announcement that Poland does not need the European Union and that Poland is not needed for the EU,” Tusk told reporters Thursday in Warsaw after testifying in a court case, the EUobserver reports. “I am afraid we are closer to that moment.”
The EU has taken legal action against Poland for its refusal to accept refugee quotas set in 2015. Polish authorities are further accused of ignoring a European Court of Justice order to stop cutting down trees in the country’s Białowieża forest.
“The fact that a European tribunal decision is rejected so arrogantly is evidence of something very dangerous in my opinion — it is an overt attempt to put Poland in conflict with the European Union,” Tusk said.