Thursday, July 16, 2015

The New Israeli Airspace, Joel Rosenberg: Will It Bring Peace Or War?

Most interesting, thought-provoking article of the day: 

Blog: The new Israeli airspace

One outcome of the Iran nuclear agreement that I’ve not heard any of the pundits mention is the beneficial effect it will likely have on Israeli combat aircraft’s egress to those fat nuclear targets in Iran they have circled in bright red in their deepest command bunkers. 

Remember all those past predictions of Israeli problems in finding clear air lanes into Iran because they would have to violate the airspace of multiple Middle Eastern countries to get from home base to targets?  The dithering concerns were that no Arab countries would betray the faith by permitting those Jew devils to fly over their nations to attack another Muslim country.

With the Obama capitulation to Iran virtually guaranteeing that Persian nation’s future status as a nuclear power, complete with nuclear arsenal, other Arab rulers have to be taking a long, hard look at how greatly they may benefit from ignoring the rapidly passing shadow of an Israeli air armada overflying their boundaries en route to Tehran and other strategic Persian targets.  

As of now, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Persian Gulf States all have to be weighing the cost/benefit of that scenario.  And with the certainty that it is Iran, not Israel, that represents the greatest threat to their own continued sovereignty, it is easy to conclude that Israel could enjoy unencumbered attack routes all the way from takeoff to bombs away, even repeatedly as necessary to render Iran an irradiated, smoking, never-to-be-again threat to its Arab neighbo

Mind you, the Israelis likely have enough submarine-borne nukes to make old General Le May smile around his cigar when it comes to returning Iran to a condition predating recorded civilization.  But any commander, and most surely Netanyahu, welcomes the multiple offensive options of sea/air operations.
Those mullahs are chuckling into their beards about making the Great Satan and her feckless leader grovel before the world.  For now...

World strikes final “historic” nuclear deal with Iran. Will it bring peace, or war? Here are my initial thoughts. | Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog

Will it bring peace, or war? I am still reading through the 100-page agreement and will have more analysis later. But here are a few initial comments and observations.

The Israeli government is also calling the deal historic — “a stunning historic mistake.” In the car ride from the airport to our home, Lynn and I listened to a live radio broadcast of Prime Minister Netanyahu addressing the nation. Here are some of the highlights:

  • “Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran and Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran because Iran continues to seek our destruction.”
  • “This deal repeats the mistakes made with North Korea. There too we were assured that inspections and verifications would prevent a rogue regime from developing nuclear weapons. And we all know how that ended.”
  • “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing.”
  • “Amazingly, this bad deal does not require Iran to cease its aggressive behavior in any way. And just last Friday, that aggression was on display for all to see. While the negotiators were closing the deal in Vienna, Iran’s supposedly moderate president chose to go to a rally in Tehran and at this rally, a frenzied mob burned American and Israeli flags and chanted ‘Death to America, Death to Israel!’ Now, this didn’t happen four years ago. It happened four days ago.”
Does Netanyahu’s remarks signal military action against Iran is coming, and/or coming soon? That’s not clear. But it cannot be ruled out. Israeli leaders certainly want to find a way to neutralize the Iran nuclear threat without using force. But Israel has successfully used preemptive air strikes to destroy two foreign nuclear facilities over the years, in Iraq in 1981, and in Syria in 2007. The possibility of an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran has just gone up significantly.

Again, I will post more analysis in the days ahead as I work my way through the agreement, and as we see how other leaders and nations react to the deal. For now, let me share with you what the former head of Israeli military intelligence noted in assessing the situation: “There are three likely scenarios for where the world goes from here,” notes Amos Yadlin.

  1. Iran somehow transforms itself into a less malign state and constructively engages with the family of nations. Unfortunately, this is highly unlikely.
  2. Iran decides in a few years to renege on its commitments, as North Korea did in 2003. If Tehran calculates that the gains of this approach outweigh the retaliation it would provoke by the West, there is no doubt they will go for the bomb. Israel and the international community must maintain a credible military option at all times to stop Iran producing a nuclear weapon.
  3. Iran plays it safe, keeping to the letter if not the spirit of the agreement, while waiting for any restrictions on it to expire in a decade. While doing this, Iran improves its technological know-how, continues to sponsor terrorism, and calls for the destruction of Israel.
“The deal and the lifting of sanctions on Tehran will pour more than $100 billion into Iran,” notes Yadlin. “Even a fraction of that sum will triple the budgets of terrorists such as Assad, Hizbullah and Hamas.”
He adds: “Israel learned long ago that taking out a nuclear program doesn’t equate to war.”

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