Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Greek Deal Already Falling Apart, Jade Helm Begins, Iran Deal Plants The Seeds For WWIII, Imminent Financial Collapse

The 'Greek Debt Deal' Is Already Starting To Fall Apart

The “deal that was designed to fail” has already begun to unravel.  The IMF, which was expected to provide a big chunk of the financing, has indicated that it may walk away from the deal unless Greece is granted extensive debt relief.  This is something that the Germans and their allies have resolutely refused to do.  

Meanwhile, outrage is pouring in from all over Europe regarding what the Greek government is being forced to do to their own people.  Most of this anger is being directed at the Germans, but the truth is that without German money the Greek banking system and the Greek economy will completely and utterly collapse.  

So even though Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras admits that this is a deal that he does not believe in, he is attempting to get it pushed through the Greek parliament, and we should know on Wednesday whether he was successful or not.  But even if the Greek parliament approves it, we could still see either the German or the Finnish parliaments reject it.  It seems as though nobody is really happy with this deal, and these negotiations have exposed very deep divisions within Europe.  Could this be the beginning of the end for the eurozone?

The Germans appear to believe that they can push the Greeks out of the eurozone and that everything will be okay somehow.  This is something that I wrote about extensively yesterday, and it turns out that a lot of other prominent voices agree with me.  For example, just consider what Paul Krugman of the New York Timeshad to say about this.  I am kind of amazed that he finally got something right…

Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.
Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

Greece desperately wants to stay in the euro, and they desperately want money from the rest of Europe to keep coming in.  At this point, they will agree to just about anything to keep from getting booted out of the common currency.  That is why the Germans and their allies had to make the deal so horrible.  They were attempting to find some way to make things so harsh on the Greeks that they would finally choose to walk away.
And to a certain extent it seems to be working.  Even some members of Syriza are publicly declaring that they are going to vote against this package.  The following comes from the Washington Post

Greek Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, who leads a hard-line leftist faction within Syriza, said in a statement Tuesday that the country’s creditors had “acted like cold-blooded blackmailers and economic assassins.”
Yet he also took indirect aim at Tsipras, calling on the Greek prime minister to reverse himself and tear up the agreement, which he described as a violation of the party’s ideals.
Even if Tsipras can pass the deal in Parliament, as he is expected to do, Lafazanis vowed that the Greek people would “annul it through their unity and struggle.”

Right now, the vote looks like it could be quite close.  Even though Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras has publicly admitted that this is a deal that “I do not believe in“, he is really pushing hard to get the votes that he needs.  In fact, according to Reuters he has been actively reaching out to opposition parties to secure votes…

But even if this deal gets through parliament, it is highly questionable whether Greece will actually be able to do what is being required of them.  For instance, the 50 billion euro “privatization fund” seems to be something of a pipe dream

For the moment, though, let’s assume that the Greek parliament agrees to these demands and that by some miracle the Greek government can find a way to do everything that is being required of them.
And for the moment, let’s assume that this deal is approved by both the German and Finnish parliaments.
Even if everything else goes right, this deal can still be killed by the IMF

The International Monetary Fund has sent its strongest signal that it may walk away from Greece’s new bailout programme, arguing in a confidential analysis that the country’s debt is skyrocketing and budget surplus targets set by Athens cannot be achieved, reports FT.
In the three-page memo, sent to EU authorities at the weekend and obtained by FT, the IMF said the recent turmoil in the Greek economy would lead debt to peak at close to 200 percent of economic output over the next two years. At the start of the eurozone crisis, Athens’ debt stood at 127 percent.
In order for the IMF to participate in this new Greek bailout, the IMF must deem Greek debt to be sustainable.  And at this point that does not appear to be the case

But the Germans made it very clear that there would be no bailout unless the IMF was involved.
So what would satisfy the IMF?
The IMF study seems to indicate that massive debt relief for Greece would be required.  The following comes from Reuters
The study, seen by Reuters, said European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a dramatic maturity extension. Or else they must make annual transfers to the Greek budgetor accept “deep upfront haircuts” on existing loans.

Needless to say, those kinds of concessions are anathema to the Germans.  There is no way that anything like that could ever get through the German parliament.
But to be honest, the Germans never intended for this deal to be successful anyway.  Just consider what German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble told reporters on Tuesday
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble made clear in Brussels on Tuesday that some members of the Berlin government think it would make more sense for Athens to leave the euro zone temporarily rather than take another bailout.

This is what Schauble and his allies have wanted all along.  This entire “deal” was crafted with the intent of creating conditions under which Greece could be forced out of the euro.
By this time tomorrow, we should know what the Greek parliament is going to do.  However, that won’t be the end of the story.  One way or another, the Germans are going to get their wish.  But once they do, I think that they will be quite surprised by the chaos that is unleashed.

While Germany's finmin Schauble is about to burst at few capillaries after reading the latest provocation from Tsipras in which he said, according to Reuters, that:
It should be the Greek people that are reeling by another, even greater stunner, just spoken by the Greek PM during his TV interview: an admission from the chosen Greek "leader" that Greece, as a
sovereign nation, no longer exists:

So the Troika makes it clear that countries under a bailout, such as a Greece was and is about to be indefinitely again, democracy is finished and the country becomes a sovereign ward of a few unelected bureaucrats, and the Greek "prime minister" who also just admitted he is now nothing but a puppet of Greece's new unelected leaders, is Ok with this. 

The good news, at least for those who seek to connect dots, is we can now close the book on what Schauble was talking about when he said "Aber glauben Sie mir, das Problem ist lösbar" in this 2011 interview with Welt am Sontag:

Schauble: "We decided to arrive at a political union via an economic and currency union. We had the hope - and we still have it today - that the Euro will gradually bring about political union. But we're not there yet, and that's one of the reasons why the markets are distrustful. 

Welt am Sonntag: "So will the markets now force us into a political union?" 

Schauble: "Most member states are not yet fully prepared to accept the necessary constraints on national sovereignty. But trust me the problem can be solved."

Perhaps it is only fitting that democracy officially dies in the country in which it was born, a country which is about to very clearly demonstrate to the rest of the world that in this day and age, banks have infinitely more power and leverage that "sovereign" nations.
As for the Greeks: enjoy your now official "second-rate citizen" status as slaves of Brussels bureaucrats even as you liquidate all your most valuable assets, and hand over your gold for the generous honor of being allowed to repay the Troika's debt.

We now know how the Obama administration and its friends will sell the deal with Iran: lie.
Here’s Represenative Don Beyer, Democrat of Virginia, telling MSNBC why he’ll vote for the Iran deal“Thanks to the Obama administration’s negotiations, Iran’s nuclear program will be under lock, key and camera 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. The eyes of the international community are on every centrifuge, every ounce of uranium, in all of Iran’s nuclear facilities.” 
Completely false: “UN inspectors can demand access to nuclear facilities on Iran military sites, but they aren’t immediate or even guaranteed. Any inspections at those sites would need to be approved by a joint commission composed of one member from each of the negotiating parties. The process for approving those inspections could take as many as 24 days.”
There have been a lot of depressing lies from this administration and its friends — “if you like your plan, you can keep your plan,” “I didn’t call the Islamic State a ‘JV’ team“; “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman,” – but the fact that the administration and its allies will lie to the public about an issue as important as Iran’s nuclear program is thoroughly dispiriting.
It’s almost as dispiriting as the administration’s blind faith that this deal, which allows Iranian nuclear research to continue, won’t set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and make a future nuclear conflict much, much more likely. 

[Note: The actual list of converting events seen below was too long to post here, but open the link. The list is referenced]

After months of speculation, the controversial multi-state urban military training drill known as Jade Helm is set to begin today in what many believe is direct training for future civil unrest in America.
From the very moment the military announced the training, complete with multiple states listed as “hostile”, the alternative media and freedom minded individuals across the country began to expose its possible real intentions.
Right on the que the corporate controlled mainstream media went to work attacking critics of Jade Helm as crazed conspiracy theorists and possible racists.
In their attacks the mainstream media made sure to purposefully misrepresent what most alternative media outlets were reporting, insisting that conspiracy theorists were claiming Jade Helm was a martial law takeover when in reality most credible independent news outlets were reporting that the training was most likely being conducted to be ready for a near future martial law scenario rather than being the actual reason for it.

Despite these attacks, literally hundreds of thousands of Americans have expressed worry over Jade Helm in one way or another. From Facebook pages dedicated to monitoring activity in the lead up to the exercise, to groups dedicated to monitoring the actual training, Americans throughout the country made clear that they would not blindly accept the military PR machines claims.

The mainstream media is 100% guaranteed to attack the entire alternative media if Jade Helm comes and goes without martial law being declared (this despite the fact that websites such as Intellihub have NEVER claimed that this would happen) so it is important to document all the strange military movements and increased urban military training that has happened since the announcement of Jade Helm 2015.

After seeing the sheer amount of evidence of military equipment and urban military training, one can fully understand why the alternative media has been so worried about Jade Helm regardless of whether or not martial law specifically happens in the next three months.

The following list of suspicious activity in the lead up to Jade Helm starts with the most recent report and includes a small summary with a link back to the original article. This information proves without a doubt that, at the very least, there has been increased preparation for some “unknown” reason. (Note: The following list only includes reports on, a complete list of reports from the entire alternative media would be so long one reporter could spend days attempting to put it together)

After reading the above list of suspicious activity and urban military training seen after the announcement of Jade Helm one can see just how ridiculous the shilling for Jade Helm conducted by the mainstream media actually is. Remember, according to them there is nothing to see so shut up and stop speaking about Jade Helm or you are a racist!
Regardless of what happens in the next few months the undeniable fact remains that there absolutely has been an increase in military activity geared towards the American people as well as actual training to take us on.

Talk radio host and author of “Plunder and Deceit,” Mark Levin declared of the Iran deal “Barack Obama has planted the seeds…for World War III” and “This is Munich” on Tuesday.
Levin said, “Barack Obama has planted the seeds, in my view, for World War III. They were already there, but he’s moved it along. I honestly believe that the next, massive, conflagration, war will now be in the Middle East. And I believe the Saudis are going to get nukes, and the Egyptians are going to get nukes, and others, and you can hardly blame them.”
He continued, “there’s no effective inspection regime here. There’s no effective sanctions. The Russians and the Chinese are not going to allow them in any event. Obama has sealed the fate of the next generation. … I really believe that one day this is going to lead to a horrific war.” And that the deal has “sealed the fate of the people of Iran” and “may well have” sealed Israel’s fate.
He later declared, “This is Munich. This is the 1930s.” And “Meanwhile, here at home, while he’s arming up the Islamonazis with nukes, he wants to attack the Second Amendment, nationalize our police force, open our borders.”
Levin then argued Republicans “can’t stop this deal” because Obama now only needs 1/3ds of the Senate to defend his threatened veto of any legislation opposed to the deal, which he will get because Democrats won’t buck the president’s “cult of personality.” And that Republicans have “already created a legislative scenario where they can’t defeat it.”
He concluded, “We have, incredibly, the most pathetic political, so-called leaders this nation has ever had gathered at one time, in both parties.”

The nuclear deal with Iran caused fury in Israel and consternation around the region at the likely increase in influence and resources of a newly enriched Iran. 
Most telling was the loudest expression of support. "I am happy that the Islamic Republic of Iran has achieved a great victory by reaching an agreement," President Bashar al-Assad of Syria said in a message to his Iranian opposite number, Hassan Rouhani. 
"In the name of the Syrian people, I congratulate you and the people of Iran on this historic achievement."

Israel and the Sunni Arab world have set aside old grievances to stand together against the West’s engagement with Iran. 
The more strident denunciations came from Israel, which regards Iran as a direct threat. Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, said the country would not be bound by what he called a "stunning historic mistake"
"Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran," he said in a televised address hours after the conclusion of the accord. "Iran continues to seek our destruction and we will defend ourselves."

Mr Netanyahu, who had condemned the deal even before it had been announced, said its terms failed to achieve the goal of denying Iran the capacity to build a nuclear bomb while, by lifting sanctions, enabled its theocratic rulers to increase their support for groups Israel considers terrorists. 
"The bottom line of this very bad deal is exactly as Iran's President Rouhani said today - the international community is removing the sanctions and Iran is keeping its nuclear programme," he said.

Saudi Arabia regards Shia Iran as a competitor for leadership in the Muslim world, and sees its hand behind many of the region’s conflicts. The two are supporting opposite sides in wars in Syria and Yemen, while Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies fear Iran’s influence among their own Shia populations.

Saudi officials have previously voiced fears that increasing rapprochement between Washington and Tehran could eventually lead to Iran supplanting Saudi Arabia as America's main ally in the Persian Gulf.

The dollar has been a stalwart of international trade over the majority of the last century. Around the time of the formation of the Eurozone, it reached its recent peak at 71.0% of official foreign exchange reserves. Since then, its composition of global reserves has more recently dropped to a more modest 62.9% in 2014.
However, the dollar is slowly losing its status as the world’s undisputed reserve currency.

This is not an unusual event as far as history goes. In fact, about every century or so since the Renaissance, the global reserve currency has shifted. Portugal, Spain, The Netherlands, France, and Britain have had dominant currencies at different times.

Today’s infographic shows that the wind is shifting in international trade. With less countries and organizations using the dollar to settle international transactions, it slowly chips away at its hegemony of the dollar. China is at the epicenter and the country is making continued progress in cutting deals outside of the U.S. dollar framework. Deals shown in the graphic are currency flows between countries that have abandoned the dollar in bilateral trade, as well as countries that are considering such measures.

The most recent culmination of these trends is the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a China-led rival to the World Bank and IMF that includes 57 founding countries and $100 billion of capital. The United States is not a member and has actively lobbied its allies to avoid joining due to perceived governance issues.

It is not only the Chinese that are starting to question the viability of the dollar. A report in 2010 by the United Nations called for the abandonment of the U.S. dollar as the single reserve currency. The Gulf Cooperation Council has also expressed desires for an independent reserve currency.
In the short term, especially with a crashing Chinese stock market and fledgling Eurozone, the dollar will likely reign supreme. It’s still a stretch for the yuan to make its way into foreign reserve coffers so long as capital controls remain in place and the country’s bond market is not open or transparent to offshore investors. However, Beijing is currently mulling ways to internationalize the yuan, and each step it takes will take China closer to challenging dollar hegemony.

With more bilateral trade transactions bypassing the dollar, and the increasing internationalization of the Chinese financial system, the yuan is eventually going to give the dollar a run for its money.

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